Cameroon timber Published May 30, 2023 • 4 minute read
Danielle Smith speaks after the election results at the Big Four Building in Calgary on Monday, May 29, 2023. Photo by Darren Makowichuk /Postmedia After a historically slim majority win, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith now faces the difficult task of navigating a political landscape fiercely divided along geographical and ideological lines.
As expected, Monday’s election saw the UCP dominate rural Alberta, the NDP sweep Edmonton, and both parties almost split battleground Calgary, with at least two ridings so close they will need recounts. That means there won’t be an elected official from Edmonton in the provincial government, and Smith’s caucus will be flush with rural MLAs.
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Appearing Tuesday morning on 630 CHED, Smith said to ensure Edmonton isn’t overlooked, she will put together a “council” of UCP candidates who lost in Edmonton.
“Some got a lot closer than I think anybody would have ever expected, so I’m going to rely on them to continue giving me advice because our capital city is vitally important to the overall success of Alberta,” said Smith.
The closest race in the city, in Edmonton-Decore, saw UCP candidate Sayid Ahmed pull in 41 per cent of the vote, compared to the NDP candidate Sharif Haji’s 52.5 per cent — a difference of 1,719 votes, or 11 per cent.
Ousted cabinet minister Kaycee Madu lost by a 14 per cent margin to NDP challenger Nathan Ip in Edmonton- South West.
“I will have a good strong team of advisers making sure that nothing gets missed in Edmonton,” said Smith.
Speaking to reporters later Tuesday, Edmonton Mayor Amarjeet Sohi said it’s more important than ever the Alberta government build stronger relationships with elected city councilors in both major cities, noting that Edmonton hasn’t gotten its fair share of cash from past provincial governments.
“I hope that changes under Premier Smith,” said Sohi, adding it’s an opportunity for Smith to reset that relationship and examine why Edmonton voters are dissatisfied with the provincial government.
“A million people in our city will not a have a direct voice in cabinet, so how do we create opportunities for those voices?” he said.
Along with Madu, unofficial results have five other cabinet ministers losing their seats, including former justice minister Tyler Shandro in Calgary-Acadia, former health minister Jason Copping in Calgary-Varsity, former mental health and addiction minister Nicholas Milliken in Calgary-Currie, former seniors, community and social services minister Jeremy Nixon in Calgary-Klein, and former culture minister Jason Luan in Calgary-Foothills.
‘Which Danielle Smith are we going to get?’ The results mean Smith will need to pull from her rural bench when she appoints her new cabinet, likely within the next two weeks, raising questions about how the premier will balance the demands of her rural supporters with those of a more moderate, but diminished, urban UCP caucus.
In the past, Smith has emphasized that she wanted rural ridings to have a strong voice at the table, but she also struck a conciliatory tone Monday night, vowing to work for those Albertans who didn’t vote for her.
“It is time to put partisanship, division and personal and political attacks in the rearview mirror,” she said.
University of Calgary political science professor Lisa Young told Postmedia its unclear how Smith will walk the tightrope of conflicting political priorities.
“Which Danielle Smith are we going to get? The woman has a remarkable talent for reinventing herself,” said Young, adding it’s likely the UCP leader will try to find common ground between the views of the rural, right-wing Take Back Alberta-aligned members of the UCP, and the remnants of the urban Calgary caucus.
That would mean focusing on issues like fighting Ottawa, or defending the oil and gas industry, said Young.
“The question then becomes, what does she do on these other issues? Does she quietly pursue more progressive policy to try to keep the cities happy?”
One of Smith’s big-ticket election promises was offering $330 million towards a Calgary arena development.
“You can do a lot to keep cities happy without necessarily angering the rural base, as long as you’ve got money to be spending,” said Young, referring to the UCP’s high-spending February budget being dependent on $79 per barrel West Texas Intermediate oil prices. Throughout May, that average price has fallen into the low $70s.
“The entire election was fought on the fantasy that we have enough money and we will continue to have enough money,” said Young.
The UCP won 49 seats, all but 12 of which are rural, although Smith has said at least one — Lacombe-Panoka candidate Jennifer Johnson — will sit as an Independent after comparing transgender students to feces in cookie dough.
Alberta Election 2023: Smith, UCP supporters celebrate electoral victory Alberta Election 2023: UCP wins majority government, but loses key seats Rachel Notley’s NDP is the largest official Opposition in the province ever after having gained 11 seats in Calgary and one in Edmonton. Flipping Banff-Kananaskis and Sherwood Park from the UCP, the NDP now has 38 seats total.
While Notley has vowed to stay on as Opposition leader, party rules dictate that New Democrats must have a leadership review at a convention after an election, which could trigger a leadership election by 2024.
Elections Alberta will release official results on June 8.
— With files from Lauren Boothby
lijohnson@postmedia.com
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